thinking fast and slow

two systems

system 1 for intuition, automatic decisions
little effort, but little control
system 2 for logical thinking, complex decisions
high accuracy, but high effort

major fallacies

priming (nudging, associations influence decisions)
cognitive ease (easy wins; like old ideas, clear presentation)
easy even wins when the falsehood has been proven to be false
jumping to conclusions ("what you see is all there is", confirmation bias)
answering easier questions (simplify, sometimes too much, questions)
law of small numbers (believe in conclusions drawn from too small samples)
anchors (clinging to some, any!, number to compare to)
availability (recent / vivid experience skews decision)
more strongly with impulsive, intuition guided people
wrong statistics (miscalculating bayesian probabilities)
regression to mean (mistakenly looking for casual explanation for out-of-norm)
illusion of understanding (causality looked for where none exist)
illusion of validity (experts overjudge their expertise)
planning fallacy (too optimistic planning, no consideration for unknown unknowns)
entrepreneurial delusion (ignorance of competition)

prospect theory

valuation judged differently depending on anchors
like 10mio different for rich & poor person
probabilities judged wrongly
like small judged too high
loss aversion (risk averse for unsure loss, risk seeking for sure loss)
the contrary for gains